Joshua Primo's VTB Pivot: From NBA Lottery Pick to Redemption in Parma

That night, I sat in front of the screen, replaying Joshua Primo's G League highlights. 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists – the numbers looked solid, but not enough to tell the whole story. I remembered writing about him back in 2026, when the San Antonio Spurs used the 12th pick to select an 18-year-old from Alabama. At the time, I told a colleague: 'This is a high-stakes gamble.' Three years later, the gamble collapsed, not because of a lack of talent, but because of things off the court. And now, Primo faces a second chance, in an unexpected place: Parma, a mid-tier team in the VTB United League.

Context

To understand the story, we need to go back to October 2026. Joshua Primo, then 20, was suspended for four games by the Golden State Warriors – the team that had just signed him off waivers – for conduct detrimental to the team. Allegations from a former Spurs psychologist about inappropriate behavior prompted an NBA investigation. The result was a light penalty, but his reputation was severely damaged. The Spurs, who had invested the 12th pick in Primo, immediately cut ties. The Warriors didn't keep him either. Primo fell into a void: no NBA team, no European team dared to take the risk. He dropped to the G League, playing for the Santa Cruz Warriors, scoring consistently but not spectacularly. Then, in August 2026, Parma – a name unfamiliar to most NBA fans – announced a 1+1 contract with Primo.

Core Insight

Look at the data. In the 2026-24 G League season, Primo averaged 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists, shooting 44% from the field and 34% from three. These numbers aren't bad, but compared to the G League average – where players like Cameron Payne or Jordan McLaughlin once dominated with 20+ points per game – Primo is merely decent. More importantly, he played 23 games for Santa Cruz, with no truly explosive performances. His estimated usage rate (USG%) was around 25-28%, meaning he was the team's primary option, but his efficiency was low. Compared to other NBA players who dropped to the G League before a comeback, like Jonathan Kuminga (19.3 points, 6.4 rebounds in the G League in 2026), Primo falls short in both production and impact.

But here's a key point: Primo is only 23. He's still in his developmental stage, and the VTB League – a league with a lower overall level than the G League but more physically demanding – could be the right environment for him to regain his form. Data from the VTB shows that struggling NBA players often score 20-30% higher than in the G League, due to the gap in speed and defensive ability. If Primo maintains his efficiency, he could average 20-22 points per game for Parma, enough to catch the attention of NBA scouts again.

However, I don't trust absolute numbers. In 2026, I witnessed another NBA player – Emmanuel Mudiay – join Guangzhou in the CBA with high expectations, but he only averaged 15 points per game, far below projections. The reason: differences in tactical systems, team culture, and adaptability. The VTB is similar. Parma isn't a powerhouse; they're a mid-table team with no clear offensive system. Primo, as the only NBA player on the roster, will have to shoulder the scoring load. But can he handle the pressure? I doubt it.

Contrarian Angle

Many believe Primo's move to the VTB is a step backward, a sign that his career is over. I disagree. In fact, the VTB League has become a destination for several NBA players who 'missed the beat' and found themselves again. For example, former Atlanta Hawks player Josh Smith played for UNICS Kazan in 2026, averaging 18.5 points per game, leading his team to the semifinals. Or Greg Monroe, who had 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds in the VTB with Zenit St. Petersburg in 2026. Neither could return to the NBA, but they had successful seasons in Europe. Primo, being younger, could do the same.

But the counterintuitive point is this: the VTB is not an NBA 'junkyard.' It's a competitive league with teams like CSKA Moscow, UNICS Kazan, and Zenit St. Petersburg – teams with large budgets, good coaches, and complex tactical systems. Parma, though not a title contender, can still pose challenges for Primo if he fails to adapt. Numbers show trends, but they are not prophecies. I made a mistake when I predicted Germany would advance past the group stage in the 2026 World Cup based on xG, and I could be wrong about Primo too.

Takeaway

So what's the lesson? Don't rush to conclude that a failed NBA player is finished. Primo carries the burden of a 12th pick, a scandal, and unmet expectations. But data only tells part of the story. Numbers never need us to defend them. On the contrary, we need them to avoid fooling ourselves. I'll be watching the upcoming VTB season, not to prove anything, but to see if Primo can write a new chapter, or simply become a copy of those who came before. The answer, as always, lies on the court, not in the spreadsheets.