Lizzy Johnson Commits to Florida State 2028: The 23.17 Curve and a Sprint Lane Still to Be Earned

Last December, at the RAFC Winter Classic, Lizzy Johnson touched the wall in the 50 freestyle in 23.17 seconds. The swimmer from Windermere, Florida won that event, finished runner-up in the 200 freestyle and the 100 IM, placed 9th in the 100 free and 50 breast, and 11th in the 50 fly. Weeks later, she announced her verbal commitment to Florida State University for the class of 2028.

"I am overjoyed to announce my verbal commitment to continue my academic and athletic career at Florida State University," she wrote, thanking coach Goller, coach Ali, coach Kyle, coach Ben, coach Neal and her family. She closed with "GO NOLES".

Johnson is a junior at Windermere High School and swims year-round with Lakers Swimming. As a sophomore at the FHSAA Class 4A State Championships last fall she finished 6th in the 200 free (1:49.90) and 4th in the 100 free (51.13). A year earlier, as a freshman, she swam the 50 free (4th, 23.74) and the 200 free (11th, 1:50.23).

Most of her short-course yards personal bests came in December. In November, at RAFC's Almost Turkey meet, she set lifetime bests in the 500 free and the 200 fly. Current bests: 50 free 23.17, 100 free 51.13, 200 free 1:49.61, 100 fly 55.83, 100 IM 57.38.

Based on my experience tracking meets and American scholastic swimming, a junior's verbal commitment toward the class of 2028 has to be read through the curve, not through the results sheet. People look at the price tag; I look at the curve. Many deals die before they are ever announced.

The improvement curve

Johnson's last two seasons reduce to a single subtraction. As a freshman she swam 23.74 in the 50 free. As a junior she swam 23.17. That is 0.57 seconds over two seasons, roughly 0.285 seconds per year. In the 200 free she moved from 1:50.23 to 1:49.61, a gain of 0.62 seconds. The progression is steady and healthy, but it is not the explosive jump of a breakout talent.

Put 23.17 next to the sprint group Florida State already holds and the gap becomes visible. Maryn McDade, as a junior, went 22.20 in the 50 free and 49.04 in the 100 free. Antonina Biegajlo, a sophomore, sits at 22.87 and 50.94. Ioana Stirbu has 49.03 in the 100 free and 1:44.97 in the 200 free. Mary Leigh Hardman has 49.51 and 1:48.17. Johnson, at 23.17 and 51.13, trails all four in the 50 free on personal-best times.

Hold the 0.285-second annual rate steady and it takes more than three more seasons for Johnson to reach McDade's 22.2. That arithmetic is enough to place her: she is not arriving in Tallahassee to fill the number one slot, she is arriving to thicken the relay lanes and widen the event range.

The technical profile

The more interesting signal sits elsewhere. In the 200 free Johnson swam 1:49.61, an average of 27.40 seconds per 50. That is only 4.23 seconds slower per segment than her flat-start sprint speed. The number points to an aerobic base better than a pure 50 specialist usually owns, and the lifetime bests in the 500 free and 200 fly from November reinforce it.

Her 55.83 in the 100 fly is worth tracking too. For a swimmer never labelled a butterfly specialist, that sits in the range that can develop into a medley relay leg. The spread between her 100 fly (55.83) and her 100 IM (57.38) is only 1.55 seconds, while she placed 9th in the 50 breast at the same meet. Breaststroke is the weak link among the four strokes.

Numbers never lie, but they know how to hide. A personal best set at a December club meet does not carry the same weight as a time produced in a tapered final. The thing to verify is whether Johnson tapered for the RAFC Winter Classic. If 23.17 came from an untapered state, her real late-season value sits under 23 seconds, and that is a positive signal. If she was fully rested, the curve is far flatter than it looks.

The counterintuitive angle

The commitment announcement reads like an ending. In recruiting data it is one data point. A verbal commitment carries no legal binding, and the distance between the announcement and enrolment day is long enough for the depth chart to shift completely.

The sprint group Johnson is aiming at will also look different in 2028. Biegajlo and Stirbu, currently sophomores, will likely still be in Tallahassee when Johnson arrives. McDade and Hardman, currently juniors, will have graduated. Johnson therefore walks into two freshly opened relay slots, while competing directly against two same-age swimmers who are already nearly a second faster than her in the 50 free.

One more point rarely discussed. Every time listed above comes from short-course yards. Scholastic and NCAA swimming runs on yards, but the international stage runs on metres. The conversion between the two systems is not merely a matter of adding seconds; it changes breathing distribution and underwater dolphin counts. For a sprinter that is a technical project of its own, measured in seasons, not weeks.

And a championship roster is built not out of budget, but out of the way time is compressed into indices. Florida State does not need a name at the top of the sheet. It needs a swimmer who can go under 23 seconds in the 50 free on day three of a conference meet, when the body is worn down. Luck is something I do not have. I have probability and data thick enough to stand on, and that probability says Johnson's value will be measured in relay appearances, not in individual medals.

Signals to watch

The FHSAA Class 4A State Championships this fall will answer most of the story, as Johnson enters her senior year. If she breaks 23.0 in the 50 free and 50.5 in the 100 free, the slope of the curve has changed. If she lands around 23.1 and 51.0, the relay scenario is the realistic one.

Alongside that, the number of times she is placed on 4x50 and 4x100 free relay legs at club level is data a personal-best sheet never shows. Relay starts, where reaction and entry technique decide most of the time, usually reveal a sprinter's true ceiling faster than flat-start results.

And one swim under 26 seconds in the long-course 50 free would move her evaluation threshold entirely, because it opens the international door that yards can never open.

A team does not collapse overnight. It collapses when the indices stop connecting to each other. In the other direction, a swimmer does not rise overnight either. She rises while the improvement curve is still steep, and while the people making decisions are willing to read the curve instead of the ranking. Lizzy Johnson's commitment to Florida State is one of those data points, and it will take three more short-course seasons to learn which group it belongs to.